Canada Goose share analysis: up 50% after all-time low

Company profile and history

Canada Goose was founded in 1957 in Toronto by Sam Tick under the name Metro Sportswear Ltd. Initially, the company focused on producing woolen vests, raincoats, and snowmobile suits. In the 1970s, Tick's son-in-law, David Reiss, joined the business and developed the down-filled parka, a product designed for extreme weather conditions that would become the brand's cornerstone. Dani Reiss, David's son, took over as chief executive officer in the 1990s and was instrumental in rebranding the company as a luxury label and expanding its global presence. In 2013, the majority stake was acquired by Bain Capital, which provided the capital for international expansion and an initial public offering (IPO) in 2017. Canada Goose has a significant global presence with a direct-to-consumer (D2C) model, alongside its wholesale operations. As of July 2025, the company has 76 permanent stores worldwide. Its products are known for their high price point and premium quality. For example, a men's 'Chilliwack bomber' jacket can cost around 1,500 dollars, a women's 'Shelburne' parka is priced at approximately 1,700 dollars, and a 'Crofton' down jacket can sell for about 1,000 dollars. The company manufactures its core, down-filled products at seven facilities in Canada.

(all prices in CAD. 1 CAD = 0,73 USD or 0,63 Euro)

Become a year-round luxury lifestyle brand

In the past two years, Canada Goose has made a concerted effort to diversify its product portfolio beyond seasonal winter wear to become a year-round luxury lifestyle brand. This strategy is highlighted by the appointment of Paris-based creative director Haider Ackermann in 2024 to lead the 'Snow Goose' seasonal capsule collection and the brand's mainline collections starting with SS26. The company's expansion into lighter outerwear and apparel is a key initiative to achieve this year-round relevance, a move seen as a response to the impact of climate change on winter seasons. Furthermore, the company has also launched a resale channel, Canada Goose Generations, to keep its products in circulation longer.

Performance and financial outlook

The share price of Canada Goose has shown volatility. The all-time high was approximately 72.00 Canadian dollars in November 2018. At the start of 2025, the stock was priced at 14.33 Canadian dollars, while the all-time low was 9.79 Canadian dollars, reached in April of this year. The company's revenue is on a rise. In fiscal year 2022, revenue was 1.217 million CAD, increasing to 1.333 million CAD in fiscal year 2023, and further to 1.348 million CAD in fiscal year 2024. For the trailing twelve months (TTM) to the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue was 1.368 million CAD. The primary drivers of growth have been the expansion of its D2C channel and its geographic footprint, particularly in Asia. Inhibitors to growth have included a slowdown in consumer spending and the seasonal nature of its core products. In terms of profitability, Canada Goose's EBITDA was 234,7 million CAD in fiscal year 2022, 243,1 million CAD in 2023, and 299,8 million euros in fiscal year 2024. Canada Goose does not currently pay a dividend. Free cash flow has also shown variability.

Competitor comparison

When compared to its competitors, Canada Goose operates in a competitive luxury performance outerwear market with brands like Moncler and Lululemon. Moncler, an Italian luxury brand, has consistently delivered strong financial performance with a higher brand prestige and a diverse product range beyond outerwear. Its parent company surpassed one billion euros in revenue in the first half of 2023. Lululemon, a Canadian athletic apparel company, while not a direct competitor in the same outerwear niche, is a comparable lifestyle brand with high-performance products. It has a significantly larger market capitalization and EBITDA, demonstrating strong growth and brand loyalty in its segment. These companies generally exhibit higher gross and operating margins, indicating more efficient cost structures and brand pricing power compared to Canada Goose.

SWOT analysis

Strengths

Brand recognition and premium positioning: Canada Goose has established itself as a luxury brand synonymous with high-quality and high-performance outerwear. Direct-to-consumer strategy: The expansion of its D2C channel, including physical stores and e-commerce, allows for greater control over the brand image, customer experience, and profit margins. Product quality and craftsmanship: The brand's reputation for durable products, many of which are manufactured in Canada, is a key selling point for consumers.

Weaknesses

High dependence on seasonal products: A significant portion of the company's revenue is generated during the winter months, making it vulnerable to warmer seasons and limiting year-round sales. High price point: The premium pricing strategy, while a strength for brand image, limits market accessibility to a niche consumer segment. Past controversies: The brand has faced criticism and campaigns from animal rights groups regarding its use of coyote fur and down, which can impact its reputation and consumer perception.

Opportunities

Year-round product expansion: The company's strategic push into non-winter apparel, footwear, and accessories can help mitigate seasonal risks and create a more diversified revenue stream. Expansion in emerging markets: There is potential for growth in new markets where the luxury outerwear segment is developing, particularly in Asia. Sustainability initiatives: By further investing in sustainable materials and ethical practices, the brand can appeal to a growing segment of environmentally and socially conscious consumers.

Threats

Economic downturn: A weakening global economy and reduced consumer spending could negatively impact sales of its high-priced luxury goods. Intense competition: Canada Goose faces stiff competition from established luxury players like Moncler and other performance brands like The North Face, each with their own loyal customer base and brand proposition. Fluctuating raw material prices: The cost of raw materials, such as down and technical fabrics, can impact the company's profitability and margins.

Sustainability and ESG

Canada Goose has committed to a ‘Sustainable Impact Strategy’ to address environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. The company went fur-free in 2022, ceasing all fur production. It has also made progress on its goal to use bluesign approved fabrics and has invested in renewable energy projects. The brand's sustainability efforts include its ‘Kind Fleece,’ which is primarily made from recycled wool, and its ‘Regeneration’ collection, which repurposes leftover materials. The company's new resale platform, Canada Goose Generations, is another initiative designed to promote circularity and extend the lifespan of its products. Despite these efforts, the company has faced criticism from animal welfare organizations regarding its historical use of fur and its continued use of down. While the brand has transitioned to the Responsible Down Standard (RDS), this has not entirely appeased all critics. For investors, ESG factors are increasingly important, and the company's ability to navigate these issues will be a key determinant of its long-term reputation and appeal to conscious consumers.

Conclusion and perspective

Canada Goose is a company with a strong brand identity and a history of quality craftsmanship, but it is at a transitional point. The company is actively working to overcome its seasonal limitations and address past controversies. While its financial performance has been subject to market pressures, its strategic shift towards year-round product offerings and D2C expansion offers potential for future growth. In the first two years after the IPO it was considered a high-growth stock. The share might be suitable for a growth investor who believes in the company’s long-term strategy to diversify its product line and expand its global footprint. However, this investment comes with risks, including potential economic headwinds that could impact luxury spending, stiff competition, and the ongoing challenge of transitioning its brand perception.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and reflects the current financial and industry landscape. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.