Consumer spending to drive retail growth through 2026, NRF reports

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast retail sales to grow 4.4 percent in 2026, reaching 5.6 trillion dollars, pointing to continued consumer resilience despite an uncertain global backdrop.

Developed with Oxford Economics, the projection exceeds the 3.6 percent average annual growth seen over the past decade, excluding pandemic volatility. The figures were presented during NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer event.

NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said consumer spending remained a consistent driver of growth in 2025 and is expected to continue supporting the economy into 2026. However, the outlook is shaped by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, noted chief economist Mark Mathews.

Spending is expected to remain uneven, with higher-income households driving the majority of growth, a dynamic that may further polarise performance across fashion segments. A short-term boost is anticipated in the first half of the year due to higher tax refunds, while inflation is projected to ease by the third quarter after remaining elevated through mid-year.

Labour market conditions are expected to soften slightly, though unemployment should stay below 4.5 percent. NRF also highlighted a continued disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending patterns.