EU-US agreement: a deal stabilising transatlantic trade despite differences

Despite persistent tensions, the framework agreement signed in July 2025 between the European Union and the United States marks a turning point in the perception of American companies based in Europe. According to the latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU), published at the end of September, the sense of mistrust has significantly eased since the beginning of the year.

Pessimism in decline, stability regained

In January 2025, nearly 89 percent of the companies surveyed anticipated a deterioration in transatlantic trade relations. Eight months later, this proportion has fallen to 46 percent. At the same time, the share of companies expecting stabilisation has jumped from 9 percent to 33 percent. Optimism, which was almost non-existent at the start of the year at 2 percent, now stands at 21 percent.

For AmCham EU, this shift is a direct result of the July Framework Agreement, known as the Turnberry Agreement, which prevented a new tariff and regulatory escalation. “Companies believe that this agreement has prevented unprecedented damage to transatlantic trade and investment,” summarised Malte Lohan, director general of AmCham EU.

Concerns still high on regulation side

This renewed confidence does not erase all concerns. Fifty-six percent of respondents believe that European policies will negatively affect their activities in the coming years, compared to 52 percent in January. On the American side, the proportion is even higher. Sixty percent of companies believe that US economic policy will have an unfavourable impact on their European operations, although this figure is down from 67 percent in January.

The points of friction are well-known: the Regulation on imported deforestation (EUDR); the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM); and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). These are all standards that, while part of the sustainable transition, increase regulatory complexity for the European subsidiaries of American groups.

Company priorities: tariffs, non-tariff barriers and cooperation

When asked about priorities for implementing the agreement, companies highlighted three key expectations:

Rapid tariff reductions: half of the respondents cite this as a priority objective.
The removal of non-tariff barriers, particularly those related to environmental and sustainability regulations.
A strengthening of regulatory cooperation and mutual recognition to limit duplication and reduce administrative burdens.

Window of opportunity for decision-makers

For the leaders of exporting SMEs and mid-caps, particularly in the textile and fashion sectors—which are highly exposed to European environmental standards—the EU-US agreement opens a period of relative stability. This period should be used to secure supply chains, anticipate regulatory requirements and consolidate investment plans.

“This calmer moment must not be wasted,” warns Malte Lohan. “European and American decision-makers must lock in this predictability to allow companies to plan and invest with confidence.”

This article was translated to English using an AI tool.

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