Import cargo levels for 2025 predicted to drop more than 5 percent due to increasing tariffs

Import cargo levels at large container ports across the nation are expected to drop as new tariffs continue to impact international trade. 

Import cargo levels for 2025 are projected to end 5.6 percent less than 2024’s levels, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world began to take effect last week.

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, in a statement. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves.” 

“Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by US importers that will result in higher prices for US consumers, less hiring, lower business investment, and a slower economy.”

US ports tracked by the Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million container units (TEU) in June, up 0.7 percent from May, but down 8.4 percent from last year. July is projected to jump to 2.3 million TEU, the highest in a year, as retailers rushed imports before new tariffs took effect.

The forecast shows declining volumes from September through December, with November expected to hit the lowest level since April 2023 at 1.71 million TEU. These drops reflect earlier cargo pulling due to tariff concerns and elevated 2024 imports ahead of potential port strikes. For the full year, 2025 is projected to reach 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6 percent from 2024’s 25.5 million TEU, despite a 3.6 percent increase in the first half of the year.

“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters, and consumers,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, in a statement. “Friends, allies, and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect.” 

“This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, US exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”