The Do’s and Don’ts of trend forecasting: How to use It without losing brand direction

Buenos Aires – In recent years, access to trend information has multiplied. Social media, digital platforms, artificial intelligence, and data analysis tools have accelerated the circulation of cultural and aesthetic signals, but they have also made interpretation more complex.

For brands, the challenge is no longer accessing information, but understanding which information is relevant to their business.

This article is part of “The Do’s and Don’ts,” an editorial series by FashionUnited that brings together industry professionals to address, from a practical perspective, the most frequent successes and mistakes in key processes within the international fashion business.

According to Catalina Marín, who has more than 18 years of experience analyzing and adapting trends for Latin American companies, the role of forecasting has evolved from an inspirational perspective to an increasingly analytical and cross-functional process.

“Today there are more sources of information. The variables that influence what shapes information are much broader. It used to be more niche and more Eurocentric; today the process is much more diverse,” she explains. This shift means that trends can no longer be interpreted solely through aesthetics or products. Science, politics, technology, behavior, and economics are all part of the same analytical system.

“The challenge today is achieving depth to understand these changes. Many people are in reactive mode, especially because of social media, and that broader contextual reading and the ability to step back and understand cycles gets lost,” she says.

From coolhunting to strategy

The growing interest in trends has also generated misunderstandings about their function within companies. For Marín, the work is not about detecting what is “new,” but about understanding the human behavior behind changes. “The topic of trends is closely associated with cool hunting, but it requires a very curious profile, with the ability to analyze and synthesize information. It’s about understanding the why behind things and how that impacts how people buy.”

The most frequent mistake lies not in the lack of data, but in its interpretation. “Today there is such a vast world of information that it is difficult to determine what is noise and what can have a short-, medium-, or long-term impact on a company,” she explains.

The Do’s

Understand the consumer before the trend.

For Marín, the starting point must always be knowledge of the audience. “The biggest mistake is not knowing your consumer. When you are clear about that brand companion, it becomes much easier to filter trends.” This implies understanding not only demographic data, but also emotional motivations and cultural shifts that affect consumption.

Read trends as processes, not events.

Relevant transformations are usually gradual. “The shift from skinny jeans to wider pants is a very slow recalibration. It can last ten years. It’s not that everything changes overnight.” Understanding timelines allows brands to adapt product gradually without breaking brand coherence or taking unnecessary risks.

Connect the macro with the local.

Even if analysis is global, application is always contextual. “You increasingly need to understand local differentiation. Before, we all wanted to be global and look alike; now there is a contraction toward what identifies us,” Marín says. The local translation of a trend can become a competitive advantage.

Use technology as a tool, not as direction.

Digital tools accelerate data analysis, but they do not replace strategic judgment. “These tools allow you to know more quickly what is happening, but they should not direct business decisions,” she explains.

The Don’ts

Don’t react to everything that appears on social media.

Overexposure to micro-trends can lead to rushed decisions. “There are companies with teams watching TikTok all day. With so much noise, it’s hard to know what to pay attention to without a methodology”. Constant reactivity weakens identity and fragments strategy.Don’t confuse trend adoption with immediate copying.

Adopting a trend without adapting it to the consumer can create disconnection.

“If I have a more conservative consumer and animal print appears, I don’t make the entire shoe animal print; I put it on the insole,” Marín suggests. For her, the key lies in the level of adaptation, not literal adoption.

Don’t prioritize aspirational ideas over real business problems.

One of the most frequent mistakes occurs when brands try to incorporate innovations without solving operational fundamentals. “I saw companies worried about the metaverse while people on social media were complaining because their orders weren’t arriving,” she recalls, emphasizing that forecasting does not replace business management.

Don’t delegate strategic decisions to artificial intelligence.

The growing use of generative tools introduces new risks. “Relying only on what GPT tools say can be delicate. The information may not be entirely accurate, and depth in analysis can be lost.”

What should be considered?

Trend forecasting today cuts across all areas of the business: product development, commercial planning, marketing, and brand experience. In the context of information overload and accelerated cultural cycles, the challenge is no longer reacting faster but interpreting better.

“Information today is enormous, but the challenge is understanding what can truly impact behavior and what is just noise,” says Marín.

For her, the key lies in balancing global context with brand identity: “The key is to understand what is happening in the global context, but above all, to be very clear about who I am as a brand and what I can respond to.”

Real cases

In practice, effective forecasting rarely translates into radical shifts. Rather, it manifests in gradual adjustments that accompany cultural change without compromising brand consistency.

The transition in silhouettes — such as the move from slim pants to wider volumes — shows how meaningful changes can unfold over years. Brands that understand this adoption curves adjust proportions and assortments gradually, reducing inventory risk.

Key takeaway

For Marín, forecasting is not about predicting the future with precision, but about providing tools to navigate uncertainty with greater clarity. In essence, trends are not followed; they are interpreted.