US retail sales bounce back in October ahead of forecasted ‘record’ Thanksgiving weekend

Things seem to be looking up for the US retail sector, which bounced back “strongly” in October according to new figures released by the CNBC/National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail Monitor. According to the report, total retail sales were up 0.74 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month, and up 4.13 percent unadjusted year-over-year in the month.

This compared to a 0.32 percent drop and an increase of 0.55 percent YoY in September, when the NRF said shoppers had exhibited more cautious behaviour due to “geopolitical tensions, a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports and the end of student loan relief programmes”.

Core retail sales, which excludes restaurants, automobiles dealers and gasoline stations, rose 0.83 percent month-over-month and up 4.59 percent YoY. The NRF said the YoY increase for total sales was the largest since 4.24 percent in November 2023, while YoY increase for core sales reflected the largest increase since August 2023, when they rose 4.76 percent.

October sales were also up in seven out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, including for health and personal care, which saw sales rise 1.45 percent. Clothing and accessories stores, meanwhile, experienced a slight 0.57 percent decrease in month-over-month sales, but an increase in unadjusted YoY sales of 8.56 percent.

Young shoppers to drive figures over Thanksgiving weekend

The report comes ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend, which is forecasted to see a record 183.4 million people shopping both in-store and online, according to data from the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up on last year’s 182 million people and significantly above the 18.1 million people that shopped in 2019. Top reasons cited by consumers to shop between Thanksgiving through to Cyber Monday, spanning five days, are good deals, tradition and starting to shop for the wider holiday season.

Younger shoppers were said to be among those most likely to take advantage of the weekend deals, with 89 percent of young adults between 18 to 24 planning to shop over the weekend. Prosper Insights’ executive vice president of strategy, Phil Rist, said it was the “social aspect of holiday shopping” that enticed this age group, as they were most likely to make the occasion a group activity.

In her own statement, Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, said: “Even though holiday shopping continues to pull forward, some of the busiest shopping days of the year are during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Consumers are prioritising gift-giving for the most important people in their lives, and retailers are prepared to help customers find everything on their shopping lists at great prices throughout the season.”