Why retail’s future depends on loyalty, not discounts

Black Friday and its many global offshoots are no longer the shopping phenomena they once were. Participation remains high, but enthusiasm is fading. According to new YouGov data, 35 percent of British consumers say they are less interested in mega sales than they were a few years ago. The reasons are telling: 63 percent cite misleading discounts, and 43 percent say the novelty has simply worn off.

For an industry that has long treated markdown season as an inevitability and something between a cultural ritual and a balance sheet necessity, this shift marks a critical moment. If shoppers are growing weary of flash discounts, where does retail go next?

The answer may lie in loyalty.

From transactional to relational

The data underscores a deeper fatigue: a growing scepticism toward sales as a measure of value. The endless churn of “up to 50 percent off” has eroded trust and trained consumers to expect perpetual markdowns. In that environment, loyalty programmes are quietly becoming retail’s most powerful corrective.

By shifting focus from one-off discounts to long-term value, brands can address the 63 percent of shoppers who no longer believe in the sales sticker price. The best loyalty initiatives are those that reward engagement, not just spending, and build credibility where promotions now ring hollow. They also give brands something far more enduring than a quarterly sales spike: emotional equity.

The generational opportunity

YouGov’s data also points to a demographic insight that retailers can’t afford to ignore: Gen Z and Millennials remain the most active shoppers during these events, with participation rates of 52 and 48 percent respectively. Yet these are also the most brand-conscious and digitally literate consumers, quick to sense inauthenticity, but highly responsive to personalisation and privilege.

Brands like Sephora, Nike and Starbucks have already shown how loyalty programmes that offer early access, exclusive products, or community experiences can outperform blanket discounts. It’s not just about saving money, it’s about belonging. For a generation that grew up online, that feeling can be more valuable than a markdown.

The first-party data dividend

Beyond engagement, loyalty has become a strategic advantage in an era of tightening data privacy rules. As third-party cookies disappear, the ability to gather and activate first-party data through membership programmes is transforming retail marketing.

Tech products may lead Q4 purchase intentions (52 percent, according to YouGov), but the real competition will be for insight. Retailers that use loyalty programmes to personalise offers, whether that means a targeted promotion, an in-store event, or a member-exclusive collection, will spend their marketing budgets more efficiently and connect with customers on their own terms.

A post-sale future

The irony is that sales still work, at least mechanically. They drive volume, clear inventory, and briefly electrify balance sheets. But in a market where shoppers have become wary and weary, it’s loyalty, not discounting, that will define the next phase of sustainable growth.

As retailers look toward Q4 and beyond, the question isn’t how deep a discount can go, but how deep a relationship can grow.