US online apparel sales to reach 51.3 billion dollars this holiday season, Adobe forecasts

US consumers are expected to spend 51.3 billion dollars on apparel online this holiday season, according to a forecast from US software company Adobe. The figure represents an increase of 4.7 percent year-over-year (YoY) for the period from November 1 to December 31.

Apparel remains the second-largest online holiday category, behind electronics at 63.3 billion dollars. Its growth, however, trails the wider market, with Adobe expecting total US online holiday sales to rise 6.7 percent YoY to 275.1 billion dollars.

Several smaller categories are forecast to grow faster than clothing. Adobe expects online grocery sales to rise 10.3 percent YoY, toys 9.6 percent, cosmetics 9.5 percent and furniture 7.3 percent.

Black Friday to bring the deepest clothing deals

Apparel discounts are expected to peak at 23 percent off listed prices, broadly in line with 23.2 percent last year. Adobe expects the best deals on clothing to land on Black Friday, while electronics and computers will see their deepest discounts on Cyber Monday.

Those discounts are helping Black Friday grow faster than Cyber Monday, according to Adobe. Black Friday online spend is forecast to reach 12.9 billion dollars, up 9.2 percent YoY, while Cyber Monday is expected to remain the season's biggest day at 15.1 billion dollars, up 6.2 percent.

Shoppers stock up on basics

Adobe expects many consumers to use holiday discounts to buy essentials rather than gifts. During Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, online sales of clothing basics are forecast to climb 210% compared with average September 2026 levels.

That is the largest uplift among the essentials categories Adobe tracked, ahead of personal hygiene products at 150 percent, baby products at 113 percent and pet products at 93 percent.

The forecast is based on Adobe Analytics data covering more than one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

This article was written with the assistance of AI.